United Nations (UN) Secretary-General António Guterres opened the COP27 Climate Change Conference in Egypt with a chilling message about climate change: “Humanity has a choice: cooperate or perish.”

The summit, held in November 2022, resulted in a package of outcomes which – despite global financial turmoil and geopolitical divergences – kept alive the Paris goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C.

Significantly, the negotiations closed with a groundbreaking decision to establish loss and damage funding for vulnerable countries blindsided by the devastating impact of climate change. 

Staggered progress on decarbonisation

The UN Environment Programme’s (UNEP) Emissions Gap Report 2022, released just before COP27, warned there was still no credible pathway towards the Paris Agreement goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C. 

While there was no backsliding of countries’ climate commitments under the Paris Agreement, the combined pledges were still expected to fall short of meeting the 1.5°C goal. The overall progress on mitigation ambition at COP27 was tepid.

The focus will now shift to the COP28 summit in 2023, which will see the conclusion of the first global stocktake – a two-year process that takes place every five years to measure the world’s progress on implementing Paris Agreement commitments.

Financing climate justice

Coping with the climate crisis could cost developing countries between US$160 billion and US$340 billion a year by 2030, potentially rising to US$565 billion by 2050 if climate change accelerates, according to the UNEP’s Adaptation Gap Report 2022.

International adaptation finance flows to developing countries are currently five to 10 times below estimated needs, the report warned.

Discussions about reforming the global financial system to support climate adaptation as a moral imperative to achieve climate justice did gain some traction at COP27.

The Bridgetown Initiative – a climate finance blueprint drawn up by Barbados which includes calls for a windfall tax on fossil fuel companies to raise funds for climate adaptation – triggered key debates on the restructuring of global finance flows.

While the establishment of a loss and damage fund is a major step forward in supporting countries and communities that are vulnerable to climate disasters, implementation mechanisms have yet to be negotiated, and questions about which countries will pay and receive the fund are to be discussed.

Building technological capabilities

On the technology front, breakthroughs on greenhouse gas monitoring are helping the world plug the important data gaps. Former US Vice President and climate activist Al Gore, for instance, announced the launch of the Climate TRACE Coalition – an independent inventory that uses artificial intelligence and satellite data to track greenhouse gas emissions.

The UNEP also rolled out a new satellite-based system to detect methane emissions called the Methane Alert and Response System (MARS).

Furthermore, the UN called for an initial investment of US$3.1 billion between 2023 and 2027 to set up early climate disaster warning systems in more vulnerable communities. Sustained financial support would also be essential to keep such systems alive.

Planting a future for nature

Nature is another vital element of the climate change challenge, and COP27 saw the launch of the Forest and Climate Leaders’ Partnership – a partnership of 26 countries committed to halting and reversing forest loss and land degradation by 2030.

To unlock the potential of nature-based solutions, Egypt, Germany and the International Union for Conservation of Nature developed a new initiative to coordinate existing nature-based efforts to address climate change, land and ecosystem degradation, and biodiversity loss under a more integrated global approach. Its progress will be reported annually to update COP28 and subsequent meetings.

Beyond the summits

The Egypt summit underscored the harsh realities that the Paris Agreement requires consensus between all parties for any incremental progress, and that diversity of national interests and considerations is a barrier to action.

While the COP27 negotiations struggled to overcome geopolitical divergences, however, many other crucial actions on climate change are taking place outside the formal COP negotiations.

The clock is ticking, as the UN Secretary-General pointed out. But multilateral agreements and corporate commitments have just as vital a role to play as global summits in finding the pathway to a sustainable future for humanity.

Note: Photograph of António Guterres and photograph of campaigners at COP27 by The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) licensed under CC BY-NC-SA 2.0.